9/28/2013

2% or 3% GDP growth maybe about right for a mature economy



We are going to get this kind of growth rate for a while given the maturity of our economy. Many mature economies are going at the same rate unlike the emerging countries that are talking of 5 to 10% growth rate. We had a miracle of 15% in 2011 which could be the last flash in the pan.
What is not so comfortable is that the GDP growth is attained through high population growth, inflated housing prices, high rentals and high car prices, or at least these items contributed to a large extent to provide the growth numbers.

What would happen without the influx of more migrants, if property balloon gets deflated, if a more efficient COE system is implemented to replace this highly inefficient and loaded system? Where is the growth going to come from without high inflation?

Are our industries growing and chalking up decent numbers to give the GDP a positive number? Or are we running out of steam, running out of ideas and by hook or by crook we will need to inflate the economy, bring in more head counts, retain the COE to keep car prices high, keep housing prices high, keep medical cost high and higher? And yes, introduce Medishield Life to boost the GDP and whatever that needs to be boosted.

Without these highly inflated industries what would become of the economy? Is there a growth sector that can uplift the economy to show growth?

27 comments:

Matilah_Singapura said...

Singapore economy is not "mature" yet. At least not to the level "acceptable" by the govt finance boffins.

Anyway, all fucking cuntrees are neurotically FIXATED on "growth". I agree, it is a kind of madness..but what to do? If you stay still --- you're out of the picture, unless you have the capital means to stay "insulated", which is only the minority of the wealthy minority.

If you look at it another way, economies have to grow, because human population is growing -- est 9 billion by 2050. Humans need to keep producing so that those new humans can eat, grow up healthy and become "productive" Sheeple to serve their corporate and statist masters :-)

Anonymous said...

Prominent Economists and Billionaire Investors Say that Runaway Inequality Harms the Economy:
---------------------------------------

Source:
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-09-27/whos-who-prominent-economists-and-billionaire-investors-say-runaway-inequalit

A who's-who's of prominent economists in government and academia have all said that runaway inequality harms economic growth, including:

Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin
Former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair
Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman
Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz
One of America's leading economists, Robert Shiller

Former chief IMF economist Raghuram Rajan
Former U.S. Secretary of Labor and UC Berkeley professor Robert Reich
Stanford University professor John Taylor
Northeastern University professor Robert Gordon
University of Oregon professor Mark Thoma

University of California professor Emmanuel Saez
Paris School of Economics professor Thomas Piketty
Famed economist John Kenneth Galbraith
Harvard Business School professor David Moss
Paris School of Economics professor Romain Rancière

London School of Economics professor Robert Wade
University of Notre Dame professor David Ruccio
Harvard professor Lawrence Katz
Arkansas State University professor Christopher Brown
Global economy and development division director at Brookings and former economy minister for Turkey, Kemal Dervi

Societe Generale investment strategist and former economist for the Bank of England, Albert Edwards
World Bank economist Branko Milanovic
Deputy Division Chief of the Modeling Unit in the Research Department of the IMF, Michael Kumhof
Former executive director of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, senior policy analyst in the White House Office of Policy Development, and deputy assistant secretary for economic policy at the Treasury Department, Bruce Bartlett
IMF economist Andrew Berg (IMF economist)
IMF economist Jonathan Ostry
Federal Reserve chairman from 1934 to 1948, Marriner S. Eccles

And many others

The father of free market economics - Adam Smith - didn't believe that inequality should be a taboo subject. And even the inequality-creator-in-chief - the Bernanke - has admitted that inequality harms the productivity and efficiency of the economy (video continues here).

Numerous investors and entrepreneurs agree that runaway inequality hurts the economy, including:

More than half of all international investors polled by Bloomberg

Billionaire and legendary investment adviser Jeremy Grantham
Billionaire and hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller
Billionaire Bill Gates
Billionaire Warren Buffet
Billionaire Nick Hanauer
Numerous other billionaires and top investors

And who says "inequality cannot be helped" ?
- Our Millionaire Ministers who became millionaires on a PAP government salary

Who do you think is more qualified?
Who is more likely to be correct?
Our PAP Millionaire Ministers?

Anonymous said...

Uncle RB, think the 15% GDP growth you mentioned should be year 2010, not 2011.

Anonymous said...

Uncle red bean memory fading slowly lar, give him a break

Anonymous said...

The heads of our government of both mathematicians of distinguished honours. How can our economy end up just fixated on GDP growth and numbers? Aren't mathematicians good in numbers? Why our country ends up in such dire straits as far as common folks are concerned? Why? Why? Why? Mb the current co-drivers are thinks the government doing a good job and not asking right questions. We need real co-drivers like CSJ, TJS, TCB, ex-parliament speaker Tan Soo Khoon, Benjamin Pwee, NS, KJ, GKS, TCC, AYG etc etc ........

Anonymous said...

Uncle RB, just spent more than half hour on the advertisement. Let us know how and whether the contribution reach you. We want to support your in your valiant efforts via your blogging to save SinkieLand from sinking into abyss and bottomless shit holes. I really can't believe in this modern era, so call men of high standing can still look into themselves into the mirrors after spewing "lies after lies" to deceive the citizenry into becoming all "types of slaves" from " housing slaves to car slaves to education slaves to cpf slaves to eternal slaves" to an old man and his succeeding "cronies".

Anonymous said...

After listening to latest speeches and talks by various elites, I think we are done for as common folks. All the little hope left are gone! We need change! The more they talk, the more our hope diminishes cos the more they let out their thoughts. We want to be led to our dreamland, not to hell and nightmares!

Anonymous said...

There are two possibilities in GE 2016.

Either they are out .... or we are out of this SinkieLand!

No other option!

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Hi Anon 10:09, thanks for the kopi. The more people visit the advertisers and stay reading a bit longer, the more kopi I get. But I am not too sure of the details. I noticed an increase yesterday and this morning.

Thanks everyone for the support and generosity.

Anonymous said...

We can't let the current state of affairs continue any more.

Come what may, like-minded Singaporeans should come together to save SinkieLand from being overtaken by "foreign invaders"!

There is no country in this world that the citizens in their own countries have to suffer such fates in the hands of foreign workers.

The elites are really heartless and ruthless.

For their own self-serving interests and obscene pay, they have sold out Sinkies to the dogs!

Are we going to let it happen to our children and our grand children?

Anonymous said...

We must reclaim bk sinkieland.

Anonymous said...

Read in TRE some foreigners are claiming that they are the ones that made Singapore so great. One even claimed to have made our biggest local bank what it is today, claiming all the credits. Can you believe that, someone in the seat for two days and telling the world he built the bank, like some young upstarts two days in politics claiming to have built Singapore and demanding millions in pay?

Anonymous said...

Will it surprise anyone if GDP Growth is -2% and above in 2014 onwards?

Anonymous said...

It takes a lot of time and effort to write. The most difficult part is the first word, to think of what to write. Many are stucked at this point.

RB has consistently been writing tirelessly everyday without fail. It must be quite an effort to do that and deserves more kopi from us.

One kopi latte for RB from me.

Anonymous said...

Rb kaki lembeh.
Matilah superficial and shallow.
Idiot Patriot talking to hinself.
Semua kena hantam, let us see
how long they can last.

Anonymous said...

Not mature give us still a chance to learn to be just right, our conservative approach of thinking just to growth will have side effects and it will rub off on the economy.

Let's look at Switzerland, the country that our PM's most likely to refer to, since 1999 immigrants have cause unease to its 8 million population, now they have impose a quotas since 2 million are now ft's.

The mention of restrictive immigration, unsustainable, and wide spread concerns are loud messages to us. The hostility towards french who are term arrogant, a pollutant to their enviroment with insolence behaviour........any similarity to the ah tiongs. Country's like the US are also face with mexicans producing same like senarios....i can quote many more other country. Isn't time for the Great PAP to realised to stop treatening us and instead use their highly paid brains to think out of the box and help companies, to prove that they are worth such million dollar salary. Inovations are not only for normals, instead of giving half fuck solutions and telling the sinkies not to bother them about problems which they create in the first place. They should come forward and lead to change change concepts, produce new technologies to advance us pass the EU.
Lip service just don't work anymore, walk the talk for god sake.

Kaki

Anonymous said...

So?

If I were LKY, I will make sure that opposition does not grow to be strong and ready to replace PAP as govt.

Anonymous said...

"RB has consistently been writing tirelessly everyday without fail."
Anon September 28, 2013 11:45 am

So? Oh I forgot there is kopi kau as motivation. Of course nowhere near million dollar lah.

Anonymous said...

Of course nowhere near million dollar lah.
Anon September 28, 2013 12:31 pm

Of course lah. Or else a lot of jobless PMETs would have started blogging also. Why need to drive taxi or be security guard, tio bo?

Anonymous said...

Frankly, they are not, we have not voted more opps in for us to make a selective choice, one WP running on similar lines are as dangerous as it is, a wiser would place more to see to have the better view, the bestbas proven time and time may not be the best.

Anonymous said...

RB,
The new lizard in Bay Gardens is a invasive speices, our local green ones ate now pretty rare and chase by the changeable lizards? ?, also a invasive and introduce, n parks idiots are still monitoring them???

patriot said...

'Is there a growth sector that can uplift the economy?'

Guess there is one way to grow infinitely. And that is to grow the GLC AND GIC. A bestest expert is needed and President Tony Tan could be the Top Calibre to fill the Role.

patriot

Anonymous said...

@ RB: "And yes, introduce Medishield Life to boost the GDP and whatever that needs to be boosted."


This policy is going to get people hurt including but not limiting to people's cpf medisave account, bank's account and yes political account aka vote bank accounts. Ha ha ha ha ha ha. This policy may turn out to be like the policies rolled out in the early 1980s. By 1984 GE, there was a huge 20% swing from about 84% to 64%. In the next GE, when we see such swing, it means dropping from 60% to 40%. They will be booted out not by anybody else but themselves. It is sure pure enjoyment to see papayas kicking themselves in the arses and booting themselves out! Ha ha ha! Nobody in sg can ever do that for now, not anyone in the opposition. Seeing papayas doing it to themselves sure make the common folks' day on election night. Even if they are not entirely out, they would have to share power in a coalition with a few opposition parties. Imagine sitting in cabinet meetings at the same conference table opposite Dr Chee, Jeyarethnam, Jee Say, Benjamin Pwee, Teochew Ah Chek etc loong chong throwing probing questions at their counterparts! Ha Ha Ha ...... I am sure all the opposition leaders and supporters are gleefully waiting for the papayas to kick their own arses jialat jialat. GE 2016 likely to see many crest fallen and shrunken faces among papaya supporters, just like GE 2011 election night for AGRC papaya supporters. So sg common folks should cheer papayas to quickly roll out this policy, shouldn't they?

Anonymous said...

What happens if growth does not continue without high population, high propety prices, high car prices etc?

Nothing is going to happen. They will just blame it on anything other than themselves for thinking out this growth strategy.

Would anyone bet on the PAP ever admitting wrong strategies? How can they when they are the highest paid talents in the world running the show?

Anonymous said...

Typical fucked up thinking.
Sea levels are rising.
And the PAP fuckers want to build more infrastructure underground.

Hello PAP Brains Trust!!
Water flows from high places to lower lying areas.
Especially if they are underground.

Stick to your core competence of robbing the poor.
Stay away from civil engineering.
Useless fuckers.

Anonymous said...

Anon 28 Sep 9.40 pm, good one ! PAP's core competence goes a little further than that. They are able to put on a moronic smiling face while doing the robbing. Only those who eat mee Siam with hum are able to do that. That's talent !

b said...

RB, What do you expect from a ruling party whose sole religion is MONEY and their 'Lure you in and suck you dry' policy making? Get prepare for more housing, expensive rentals, business costs, groceries, transport, food, education, medical, etc. It is not how much growth is but the quality of growth that really matters.